Navigating Uncertainties: Forecasting the Future of the UK Roofing Market

The UK roofing market is forecasted to have a marginal increase of +2% in 2028. The 14^th edition of the UK roofing market report presents our forecast from 2024 to 2028 for the following products:

• Roof tiles & slates (concrete, clay, natural slate, fibre cement, synthetic, metal, solar PV)
• Flat roof membranes (bitumen felts, single ply, liquid roofing systems, mastic asphalt)
• Metal roofing (steel & aluminium sheets, insulated panels, standing seam)
• Rooflight systems

Economic Shifts Drive Uncertainty for UK Roofing Market 

The UK roofing market remains fragmented and impacted by economic uncertainties following the Brexit and the pandemic. Market supply competition varies depending on the product, as do distribution channels. We expect the market to undergo a stable, albeit slow, growth in the next five years, and for sustainable products to grow in the long-term thanks to the energy transition and supporting legislations.

UK Roofing Market Forecast Highlights

In 2020, the market experienced a strong decline (-12%), yet, it quickly picked up in 2021 and is now forecasted to continue growing in the next five years. The UK roofing market forecast projects a +2% marginal growth in 2028, expecting it to be worth £1,324m at Manufacturer Selling Price (MSP).

As a mature market, growth is anticipated to remain stable. Nonetheless, following Brexit, growth prospects have been impacted by high costs due to the UK’s growing reliance on costly imports and skilled labour shortages. Despite this slow growth dynamic being reinforced by a decline in construction new orders across all sectors, Repair Maintenance Improvements remain constant in this market.

With the current transition to sustainability coupled with high energy prices, greater demand for sustainable roof coverings coincides with new regulations pushing towards limiting carbon emissions and greater energy efficiency, thus providing a new landscape for the market and its sustainable products.  Among the sustainable technologies mentioned in our report, breathable membranes and reflective coatings are noteworthy products enhancing building insulation.

Market Sectors & Notable Key Market Players

The largest market sectors in the UK roofing products are metal roofing and flat roof membranes, constituting 72% of the UK roofing market. Market value is mostly identified in new construction work, it being housebuilding or commercial and public new work depending on the product.

Regarding roof tiles and slates, the market is dominated by Marley, Weinerberger, BMI, and Russel Building Products, constituting 60% of the supply market. Concrete roof tiles and clay roof tiles are the primary products supplied. The flat membranes market is separated in three different branches – bitumen, single ply, and liquid roofing systems — with single ply membrane being its largest contributor at MSP.

Key market players are IKO, Bauder, and BMI for bitumen membranes, IKO, Sika, and BMI for single ply membranes, and the liquid roofing systems market remains fragmented with G&B (North West), Scott Bader, and BMI whom can be identified as key manufacturers. The metal roofing supply market is also highly fragmented, and some key players are Kingspan, Euroclad, and SIG. Finally, rooflight systems constitute a small part of the UK roofing market and remains fragmented and competitive. Key players that can be identified are Whitesales and Brett Martin Daylight Systems.

Distribution of Roofing Products

The distribution of roofing products is composed of four channels – direct to contractors, builders’ merchants, roofing merchants & specialist distributors, and others such as DIY multiples.

Most of the supply is distributed by roofing merchants & specialist distributors or direct to contractors, constituting 80% of roofing product distribution. Nonetheless, product distribution is highly dependent on the type of product itself. For instance, builders’ merchants primarily focus on the supply for small projects, and large chains mainly distribute major manufacturers’ tiles. In the UK roofing market distribution, SIG is the largest roofing merchants; EDS Roofing Supplies, Encon, and CCF are important specialist distributors; and Travis Perkins, Jewson, and Huws Gray are leading builders’ merchants. It is also common for contractors to get their supply directly from the manufacturer, although it is principally offered to contractors working on larger projects, or by overseas manufacturers.

Increase in Demand Despite Uncertainty

We find the UK roofing market stabilising itself after COVID. Nonetheless, economic uncertainties exert an undeniable pressure on the construction market. Therefore, it is difficult to anticipate future private and public investment in new construction, explaining the slow growth forecasted for the next five years.

Despite this, and provided no other economic shocks are encountered, home undersupply and the increasing demand for houses over flats explains the UK roofing market’s stability for the next five years. We project flat roof membranes and rooflight systems to have a larger marginal growth, +3% in 2028, compared to roof tiles & slates and metal roofing, both expected to grow by +2% in 2028. Finally, the outlook on carbon footprint and energy efficiency may change the market’s landscape and provide new opportunities for manufacturers, with the support of new regulations, technologies, and consumers to enhance buildings’ sustainability.