95th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference Reports Released

The Barbour ABI Group, in partnership with Experian, are delighted to be the provider and distributor of the UK’s construction economic forecasting for the latest EUROCONSTRUCT conference. The 95^th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference took place in Amsterdam across the 8^th and 9^th June 2023. The aim of the EUROCONSTRUCT conference is to provide decision makers in the built environment sector and other construction industry related markets with information, analysis and forecasts from construction markets across Europe to enable them to plan their business better and more effectively.

Across the two days, EUROCONSTRUCT’s experienced network came together to address key issues affecting Europe’s construction market, such as: how will Europe’s construction sector cope with rising prices and interest rates?

The conference gives delegates exclusive, first access to the latest macro-economic and construction market projections. After the conference, the EUROCONSTRUCT data is then collated and published into three EUROCONSTRUCT reports, available for purchase through Barbour ABI, part of the Barbour ABI Group; Country Report, Summary Report and the UK Report. The UK report is attributed to the Barbour ABI Group’s and Experian’s highly regarded Economists, Tom Hall and Mohammed Chaudhri.

Within the EUROCONSTRUCT Summary and Country Reports, the macroeconomic outlook reports upon the Russian invasion on Ukraine. The EUROCONSTRUCT data reveals a sharp reduction in the availability of pipeline gas and several other commodities, combined with a drastic increase in energy prices due to the invasion.

Despite this, upon review the EU GDP growth forecast has been revised by 0.4%. Originally GDP was projected to be 0.5% but the EUROCONSTRUCT forecast has since been revised to 0.9%. The improvement was driven by lower energy prices, abating supply constraints and a strong labour market. Further revisions have been made to the 2024 and 2025 forecasts, decreasing from 1.9% to 1.7%. This revision originates from the high realised growth rate in 2022 and improved expectations for 2023.

Inflation and interest rates rose to record highs in 2022, 9.2% in the European Union and 8.4% in the Euro area, due to a combination of pent-up demand, war-related energy and food commodities shocks. The European Commission foresees consumer price increases in the European Union by 6.7% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024, with corresponding figures of 5.8% and 2.8% for the Euro area.

Overall, the outlook on the European economic activity in the coming years is somewhat positive. However, the probability that the downside risks will become a reality has increased in recent months. Inflation could prove more persistent, financial sector stress in the US could amplify and spread to the European financial system and the war in Ukraine could intensify and lead to even more food and energy supply disruptions and price strikes.

EUROCONSTRUCT’s forecast tables: